NDC to suffer from internal rivalries in Elections 2012 – EIU
The United Kingdom Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), has said that the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) looked set to suffer from internal party rivalries in Elections 2012.
“But the party stands to benefits greatly from the favourable economic picture of high growth and relatively low inflation to set the outcome of Elections 2012 just as close as that of Elections 2008.
“In all these political and economic inter-plays, President John Evans Atta Mills is set to retain power,” EIU stated in its October Country report obtained by the Ghana News Agency in Accra on Thursday.
The EIU report revealed that President Mills and NDC would find it difficult to balance their attention between trying to heal intra-party divisions and moving the development programme forward.
According to the report, the squabbles within the NDC already in the public domain and the mud-slinging between the rival camps of President Mills and former President Jerry John Rawlings’ family would play into the hands of the opposition New Patriotic Party.
“The Rawlings’ family is politically powerful, with strong support at the grassroots level, which the NDC would hinge on in Elections 2012 but it is unclear how actively they would campaign for the President,” the EIU report stated.
It noted that in spite of the challenges, the power of incumbency would give some advantage to the NDC in next year’s presidential and parliamentary elections, especially in terms of spending the early oil windfall.
The report also noted that the developments within the NDC in the Volta Region especially the clash with police during demonstrations against the Regional minister, Mr Joseph Amenewode, and the Municipal Chief Executive of Ho, Mr Isaac Kotobisah, was dangerous for the party.
The EIU said judging from the fact that traditionally, Volta Region had been a stronghold of the NDC, the hostility of local NDC members to a leadership backed by the party did not arguer well for thefuture.
“The incident may have been localised, but the NDC’s inability to address the disquiet before it escalated to become a public street protest indicates that there is sufficient disunity within the party to have an impact on its performance in Election 2012.
“If local members feel that the NDC leadership and the President are not appointing or backing officials in their districts whom they can support, the party could see its vote suffer.
The report noted that President Mills won the 2008 Presidential Election by a mere 40,000 votes and so disaffected party members could prove important in the outcome of the 2012 Election.
On the political maneuvering of former first lady, Nana Konadu Agyemang Rawlings, the EIU report indicated that continued criticism of President Mills after the Sunyani Congress, “makes it clear that she still believed the NDC to be on the wrong track and that reforms were needed to address the needs of its grassroots supporters.
The report said although the strength of Mrs Rawlings’ influence on the overall party was shown to have its limits at the NDC congress, a large number of those who supported her and the party’s founder, former President Rawlings, were not delegates to the congress.
It said “The leadership of the NDC is clearly backing President Mills, but with such a slim margin of victory in 2008, the failure of hardened Rawlings supporters to vote for him in 2012 could significantly jeopardise his chances of re-election.”
The EIU predicted that a re-union between President Mills and former President Rawlings looked unlikely in the near future, however, the possibility of Mrs Rawlings contesting Elections 2012 as an independent candidate seemed even less likely, given the short timescale available for conducting a viable election campaign withoutparty backing.
According to the EIU, there was still a window of hope for the NDC…”with the Rawlings expected to remain within the party structure, there is still time for internal differences to be patched up in order to get all of its members united behind President Mills before Elections 2012.
Source: GNA