Confidence in world economy builds up – WEF Poll
A poll conducted by the World Economic Forum (WEF) has shown that confidence in the global economy is beginning to build up.
According to the Davos-based group, confidence in the state of the world economy firmed up in the fourth quarter of 2012, although a majority of respondents to its Global Confident Index poll were still pessimistic.
Amid some signs that the slowdown in China has bottomed out, the WEF indicated November 12, 2012 that 56% of global experts polled said they lacked confidence in the global economy, sharply down from 72% last quarter.
In a poll of 460 experts, respondents in the Middle East and North Africa were significantly more confident about the global economy than those in North America, Europe, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the Forum said in a statement.
Reflecting sentiments in the run-up to the presidential elections in the United States and China’s political transition, respondents in North America were said to be more worried about an upcoming economic shock than their counterparts in Asia. Some 63% in the US and Canada judged this as likely or very likely versus 43% in Asia, the WEF observed.
Overall, the Forum said the number of respondents worried about an economic jolt fell to 52% from 68% last quarter, while those concerned about a social shock fell to 46% from 53%. Expectations of a geopolitical, environmental or technological disturbance were little changed, at 56%, 36% and 25% respectively, it added.
Confidence in global governance improved, with the number of respondents lacking faith in this area falling to 51% from 61%.
Respondents from the Middle East and North Africa expressed more confidence in global institutions than their counterparts in Europe.
“The results are indeed an improvement from last quarter’s confidence levels, but sentiment overall remains pessimistic,” said Martina Gmur, Senior Director of WEF’s Network of Global Agenda Councils.
Gmur adds “We still need strategic vision coupled with bold leadership to snap out of this global malaise.”
“While the probability of a global recession is no greater than about 25%, according to forecasts, three risks loom large: the US fiscal cliff, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the potential for an escalation of conflict in the Middle East and North Africa,” said Nariman Behravesh, a member of the Global Agenda Council on the United States.
The Global Confidence Index is a research initiative targeting large group of international experts who focus on monitoring key trends and identifying global risks
By Ekow Quandzie